Supply-driven growth should be preferred in EVs
Electric vehicles have been on the agenda for a very long time and there are many predictions that in the coming years they will not only be on the agenda but will also spread rapidly on the roads. According to the figures of 2016, the number of electric vehicles in the world is over 2 million. When we look at the distribution of these countries, we see that China ranks first with approximately 800 thousand vehicles (40%). China is followed by the United States and Scandinavian countries. In China alone, 200 thousand electric vehicles were sold in 2015. In the same year, 110 thousand electric vehicles were sold in the US. In Turkey, the total number of electric vehicles sold so far is nearly 1000. Rapid growth in China is driven by the incentives for domestic production.
Absolute figures alone do not give much information, so the share of electric vehicles in the total number of vehicles and the annual rate of increase needs to be considered. Looking at the share of electric vehicle numbers in the total number of vehicles in the country, Norway is the most successful country in electric vehicle penetration, with a usage rate of 29%. Norway is followed by the Netherlands with 6.4%, and Sweden with 3.4%.
You know that we have also been put on the button for local automobile production in November, the year we passed by the order of the President of the Republic of Turkey. It is highly likely that the cars to be produced under this project are electric or hybrid. With affordable pricing and incentives, we can see a rapid increase in vehicle numbers in the short term.
According to the data released by TURKSTAT in early April, 38.2% of the cars registered by the end of February is LPG, 35.6% is diesel and 25.8% is gasoline. In the survey, 'automobiles of unknown fuel type' are classified as automobile, electric car and only 0.3% share. This indicates that there are very few electric vehicles in our country, but it also shows that it is a great opportunity, especially when it comes to domestic production.
There are three obstacles to growth
When we look at the other side of the medallion, despite all its benefits and predictions, we see that electric vehicles do not enter our lives as fast as we expected. We can say that this is caused by three main factors. First, quick and easy rechargeability. The second is the maximum distance to go with a full charge. The third is electric vehicle sales prices.
The maximum distance that can be taken with a full charge is a matter of both storage technology and material technology, which has developed quite rapidly over the past five years. We have seen that with an electric vehicle up to a short time ago, the average distance traveled by a single charge is 150 km, with improved battery technology, this distance can be almost four times higher. The longest-range electric vehicle currently produced in the world is Tesla's S100D with a range of 540 kilometers.
The selling price of vehicles is a matter of how far countries want to spread electric vehicles from a cost point of view. This brings to the agenda the direct taxes on the vehicles and, in some cases, additional incentives. Moreover, given the environmental impacts, the economic benefits of electric vehicles make rational policies that will encourage rapid dissemination.
We can approach growth expectancies in electric vehicles and this network effect from two directions. The first is the increase in the number of charging stations, i.e. demand-driven growth, depending on the increase in electric vehicle sales. The current regulation for charging stations envisages growing demand. As the demanding entrepreneurs demand, they will invest in the charging station. This makes network planning and management relatively difficult for distribution companies. In large cities, particularly in areas where demand will be intense, the number of charging stations will increase rapidly and suddenly, which means that the risks for the network will also increase. If you do not meet the demand of the new charging station at the same time, you will be facing both entrepreneurs and vehicle owners.
The second is a more planned method in terms of network management. Expansion of charging stations, taking into account network requirements and constraints; which will ensure that individuals who are able to charge at a sufficient level will be directed to electric vehicles. This can be called “supply-driven growth”. As the electricity distribution sector, we believe that supply-driven growth will be healthier as it will reduce the impact on the network and the probability of interruption. We believe that charging station installations should be done under the control of the electricity distribution companies in order to be able to manage the additional grid load due to electric vehicle charging.
There is another very important issue about electric vehicles; which is the contribution of electric vehicles to the use of renewable energy at maximum efficiency. The greatest debate on renewable resources is large fluctuations in production resources and unpredictability. It is possible to simplify the management of these fluctuations by using methods such as storage units in line with the network needs of electric vehicles. In other words, when demand is low, the power generated from renewable sources can be stored in electric vehicles, then it can be given back to the network at times when the demand is too high. Thus, electric vehicles can play a role in relieving the adverse effects of renewable sources on the network and facilitating the integration of these resources into the network.
One of the most fundamental effects of such a practice will be reducing the sudden changes in the market prices of electricity. However, a more significant effect is to obtain maximum benefit from renewable energy.
Finally, it is clear that for our country, which imports almost all of its fuel oil needs and has started to meet most of its electricity production with domestic resources, the spread of electric vehicles is very critical both in terms of foreign trade deficit, economic benefit and environmental effects.
Source: Enerji Panorama