Supply-driven growth should be preferred in EVs

Electric vehicles have been on the agenda for a very long time and there are many predictions that in the coming years they will not only be on the agenda but will also spread rapidly on the roads. According to the figures of 2016, the number of electric vehicles in the world is over 2 million. When we look at the distribution of these countries, we see that China ranks first with approximately 800 thousand vehicles (40%). China is followed by the United States and Scandinavian countries. In China alone, 200 thousand electric vehicles were sold in 2015. In the same year, 110 thousand electric vehicles were sold in the US. In Turkey, the total number of electric vehicles sold so far is nearly 1000. Rapid growth in China is driven by the incentives for domestic production.

Absolute figures alone do not give much information, so the share of electric vehicles in the total number of vehicles and the annual rate of increase needs to be considered. Looking at the share of electric vehicle numbers in the total number of vehicles in the country, Norway is the most successful country in electric vehicle penetration, with a usage rate of 29%. Norway is followed by the Netherlands with 6.4%, and Sweden with 3.4%.

You know that we have also been put on the button for local automobile production in November, the year we passed by the order of the President of the Republic of Turkey. It is highly likely that the cars to be produced under this project are electric or hybrid. With affordable pricing and incentives, we can see a rapid increase in vehicle numbers in the short term.

According to the data released by TURKSTAT in early April, 38.2% of the cars registered by the end of February is LPG, 35.6% is diesel and 25.8% is gasoline. In the survey, 'automobiles of unknown fuel type' are classified as automobile, electric car and only 0.3% share. This indicates that there are very few electric vehicles in our country, but it also shows that it is a great opportunity, especially when it comes to domestic production.

There are three obstacles to growth

When we look at the other side of the medallion, despite all its benefits and predictions, we see that electric vehicles do not enter our lives as fast as we expected. We can say that this is caused by three main factors. First, quick and easy rechargeability. The second is the maximum distance to go with a full charge. The third is electric vehicle sales prices.

The maximum distance that can be taken with a full charge is a matter of both storage technology and material technology, which has developed quite rapidly over the past five years. We have seen that with an electric vehicle up to a short time ago, the average distance traveled by a single charge is 150 km, with improved battery technology, this distance can be almost four times higher. The longest-range electric vehicle currently produced in the world is Tesla's S100D with a range of 540 kilometers.

The selling price of vehicles is a matter of how far countries want to spread electric vehicles from a cost point of view. This brings to the agenda the direct taxes on the vehicles and, in some cases, additional incentives. Moreover, given the environmental impacts, the economic benefits of electric vehicles make rational policies that will encourage rapid dissemination.

We can approach growth expectancies in electric vehicles and this network effect from two directions. The first is the increase in the number of charging stations, i.e. demand-driven growth, depending on the increase in electric vehicle sales. The current regulation for charging stations envisages growing demand. As the demanding entrepreneurs demand, they will invest in the charging station. This makes network planning and management relatively difficult for distribution companies. In large cities, particularly in areas where demand will be intense, the number of charging stations will increase rapidly and suddenly, which means that the risks for the network will also increase. If you do not meet the demand of the new charging station at the same time, you will be facing both entrepreneurs and vehicle owners.

The second is a more planned method in terms of network management. Expansion of charging stations, taking into account network requirements and constraints; which will ensure that individuals who are able to charge at a sufficient level will be directed to electric vehicles. This can be called “supply-driven growth”. As the electricity distribution sector, we believe that supply-driven growth will be healthier as it will reduce the impact on the network and the probability of interruption. We believe that charging station installations should be done under the control of the electricity distribution companies in order to be able to manage the additional grid load due to electric vehicle charging.

There is another very important issue about electric vehicles; which is the contribution of electric vehicles to the use of renewable energy at maximum efficiency. The greatest debate on renewable resources is large fluctuations in production resources and unpredictability. It is possible to simplify the management of these fluctuations by using methods such as storage units in line with the network needs of electric vehicles. In other words, when demand is low, the power generated from renewable sources can be stored in electric vehicles, then it can be given back to the network at times when the demand is too high. Thus, electric vehicles can play a role in relieving the adverse effects of renewable sources on the network and facilitating the integration of these resources into the network.

One of the most fundamental effects of such a practice will be reducing the sudden changes in the market prices of electricity. However, a more significant effect is to obtain maximum benefit from renewable energy.

Finally, it is clear that for our country, which imports almost all of its fuel oil needs and has started to meet most of its electricity production with domestic resources, the spread of electric vehicles is very critical both in terms of foreign trade deficit, economic benefit and environmental effects.

Source: Enerji Panorama

World Bank approved Turkey Gas Storage Expansion Project

The World Bank approved a $600 million loan for Turkey's Gas Storage Expansion Project, which aims to support capacity increases at the Salt Lake Natural Gas Storage Facility, the Bank announced Wednesday. The project's aim is to increase the reliability and security of gas supplies in Turkey by expanding the underground gas storage facility near the Salt Lake in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey, the statement said.

In November 2005, the Bank approved a $325 million loan for a first gas storage project at Salt Lake, and in July 2014 it approved additional financing of $400 million to provide storage for about one billion cubic meters of gas, the statement showed.

"The Gas Storage Expansion project will support government efforts to quintuple the size of the storage facility at the same location. Turkey’s national gas company, BOTAS will implement the Gas Storage Expansion Project, which will consist of three components," the statement read.

The first component involves building an underground gas storage facility within the salt formation close to the Salt Lake to further increase capacity by approx. 4 billion cubic meters, the statement said. The second component involves the construction, supervision, and monitoring of the environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) and the resettlement action plans (RAP), the Bank said.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced last February that the storage capacity would increase from 1.2 billion cubic meters to 5.4 billion cubic meters. The first phase comprises the storage of 1.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 12 caverns. Currently, storage works have started at six caverns this year and the remaining caverns will be stored with gas up to 2020.

Source: World Bank

Turkish power ship begins electricity production in Sudan

The Karadeniz Power ship Rauf Bey, belonging to the Karadeniz Holding's subsidiary Karpowership, has reportedly commenced electricity production in Sudan. In a statement released by Karpowership, it was noted that the company is continuing to take Turkey's experience in the field of energy technologies to Africa.

The statement pointed out that Karadeniz Power ship Rauf Bey is the first floating power plant project in Sudan. According to the statement, the Karadeniz Power ship Rauf Bey started its commercial operations in Port Sudan, the port city in the east of Sudan, in the month of Ramadan on May 16. With a capacity of 180 megawatts, the vessel will provide electricity to the national grid under the energy purchase contract signed with the Sudan Thermal Power Generating Company.

It was also stressed that the collaboration with Sudan is Karpowership's sixth project in Africa after projects in Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia, Gambia and Sierra Leone. The Karpowership will continue to grow its operations in the continent while focusing on expanding its activities in the field of global powership to enable further growth and advancement. Karpowership Trade Group President Zeynep Harezi stressed that electricity is the starting point for all developments. "Our contract is for 150 megawatts. I hope that every kilowatt-hour produced will benefit Sudan and bring the country to the next level of economic development and prosperity," Harezi said. "Our aim is to see Sudan as the center of economic, scientific and technological progress of Africa and further grow with Sudan, and in doing so, to supply the cheapest electricity."

Karpowership announced that they signed a contract last month to provide the electricity to Sudan.

Source: Daily Sabah

Turkish scientist leads solar power to fresh water team

A group of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) led by a Turkish scientist have discovered a solar-powered solution to produce fresh water from saltwater. Emre Gencer of MIT’s Energy Initiative described the model they found to Anadolu Agency.

He underlined that they were inspired by countries with plenty of sunlight but little water to spare. “Fresh water, electricity, and hydrogen can be produced using solar energy and saltwater, which are among the world’s most abundant resources,” he explained.

“First we evaporate the water using solar energy systems. We produce electricity by sending the obtained steam to steam turbines.”

“The steam produced by the power generation phase is directed to the thermal treatment system and is used to heat the saltwater. At this stage, some of the saltwater evaporates and fresh water is obtained,” he said.

Source: Anadolu Agency

2018 Expectations: General Manager’s of DSOs in Turkey

ÇORUH Electricity Distribution Company CEO Mehmet Aydın

As FIRAT DSO, we are setting goals that above expectations. We set our goals for 2018 in this direction. We are making effort for achieving our targets in occupational health and security, customer satisfaction, service quality and communication.





DİCLE Electricity Distribution Company CEO Murat Karagüzel

We are also committing social responsibility projects that add value to our core activities. Our Energy Hunters project that we have continued for 3 years was awarded the prize in the category of Corporate Social Responsibility Climate Action Marketplace organized by the Corporate Social Responsibility Association of Turkey. In 2018, in which we are celebrating our 5th service year, we aim to make our consumer-focused activities quality and sustainable with the investments we will make in 2018.






ENERJİSA Electricity Distribution Company CEO Murat Pınar

The year 2017 became the year of investment, customer satisfaction, technological transformation and employment in the electricity distribution sector. We aim 2018 to be the implementation and action year for the latest network applications to be taken over and the service quality to be moved to the highest level. In addition, 2018 will be the "year of customer satisfaction" for us. Our region is the one that experience the least number of power outages in Turkey. As it is today, we will keep network and system infrastructure works at the top level and we will shape our investment plan in this direction.




E-Buses to Surge Even Faster Than EVs as Conventional Vehicles Fade

The electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, thanks to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing, with sales of electric cars racing to 28%, and those of electric buses to 84%, of their respective global markets by 2030.

The latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows sales of electric vehicles (EVs), increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

The number of ICE vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market. In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold, equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market. ‘Shared mobility’ cars will be a small but growing element.

The advance of e-buses will be even more rapid than for electric cars, according to BNEF’s analysis. It shows electric buses in almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019. There are already over 300,000 e-buses on the road in China, and electric models are on track to dominate the global market by the late 2020s.

Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF, commented: “Developments over the last 12 months, such as manufacturers’ plans for model roll-outs and new regulations on urban pollution, have bolstered our bullish view of the prospects for EVs. The changes to our forecast this time compared to the previous one a year ago are modest, at least as far as cars are concerned. We now think EVs will be 55% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, rather than 54%, and represent 33% of the total car fleet worldwide.

“But the big new feature of this forecast is electric buses. China has led this market in spectacular style, accounting for 99% of the world total last year. The rest of the world will follow, and by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric.”

BNEF expects the transition in transport to have major implications for electricity demand, and for the oil market. EVs and e-buses will use 2,000TWh in 2040, adding 6% to global electricity demand. Meanwhile, the switch from ICE to electric vehicles is forecast to displace 7.3 million barrels a day of transport fuel.

The BNEF team has taken a detailed look at whether the increased appetite for metals such as lithium and cobalt resulting from the rise of electrified transport could lead to supply shortages for these key metals.

Salim Morsy, senior transportation analyst, said: “While we’re optimistic on EV demand over the coming years, we see two important hurdles emerging. In the short term, we see a risk of cobalt shortages in the early 2020s that could slow down some of the rapid battery cost declines we have seen recently. Looking further out, charging infrastructure is still a challenge.”

The outlook for EV sales will be influenced by how quickly charging infrastructure spreads across key markets, and also by the growth of ‘shared mobility’.

Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, lead analyst for intelligent mobility at BNEF, said: “We predict that the global shared mobility fleet will swell from just under 5 million vehicles today to more than 20 million by 2040. By then over 90% of these cars will be electric, due to lower operating costs. Highly autonomous vehicles will account for 40% of the shared mobility fleet.”

The pace of electrification in transport will vary by country, particularly over the next 12 years as some markets jump ahead of others. BNEF forecasts that in 2030, EVs will make up 44% of European light-duty vehicle sales, 41% of those in China, 34% in the U.S., and 17% in Japan. However, a shortage of charging infrastructure and a lack of affordable models will hold back the market in India, so that EVs will make up just 7% of new car sales in 2030 there.

BNEF’s projections imply big opportunities for lithium-ion battery manufacturers. China is already dominant in this market, with a 59% global share of production capacity in 2018, and this is forecast to rise to 73% by 2021.

Kaynak: Bloomberg

Hawaiian Authorities Work to Protect Power Plant from Lava Flow

Hawaiian authorities scrambled Tuesday to protect a major power plant from approaching lava, in the latest threat from renewed eruption of the Big Island’s Kilauea volcano nearly three weeks ago.

Hawaii County officials said the flow began Monday night when one of more than 20 fissures caused by the volcanic eruptions reactivated and sent lava onto the property of Puna Geothermal Venture, a 38-megawatt plant that produces electricity by running a turbine with superheated water from wells. If the molten lava compromises a well, emergency officials say that could set off clouds of flammable and potentially deadly hydrogen sulfide.

As a result, officials have been working with operators of the plant, which is owned by Ormat Technologies Inc. of Reno, Nev., to safeguard the 10 wells through a number of steps. First, they have pumped cold water into the wells to keep the hot water at the bottom, and then they have moved to plug them with metal or other impermeable material, said David Mace, a spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency in Hawaii. That work had mostly been completed by midmorning Tuesday, when the lava flow was reported stalled behind a berm on the property.

But anxiety remained, because officials say they aren’t sure the plugs and water tactics will hold up under the force of lava should it cover a well. “It really is uncharted territory,” said Garrett Kim, a longtime public safety officer on the island. “Maybe the lava could seal the wells under 20 feet of rock, too. We really don’t know.”

At a press briefing Tuesday, Wendy Stovall, a U.S. Geological Survey volcanologist, said the lava remained at least 11 feet below the top of a vegetated berm on the plant property and was “very slow moving.” She said lava would have to fill in a small valley in front of the berm before it could rise enough to overflow.

Officials of Ormat, whose facility supplies power to Hawaii Electric Light Co., didn’t immediately return an emailed request for comment. In a May 15 press release, Ormat officials said they had taken precautionary measures including shutting down the geothermal wells, placing physical barriers around them and removing flammable materials from the facility to a storage area off site.

Hawaii Electric spokesman Jim Kelly said Tuesday the utility has sufficient generation from other power plants on the Big Island to make up for the renewable plant being taken out of commission.

Meanwhile, hundreds of people remain evacuated from homes they fled after one of the world’s most active volcanoes rumbled to life again, shooting ash thousands of feet in the air and sending rivers of lava to the Pacific Ocean.

As of Tuesday, 48 homes and other structures had been destroyed, while injuries have been mostly minimal. About 2,000 people live in homes in the eruption zone, but clouds of potentially harmful gas have drifted with the shifting winds toward more populated areas—prompting health advisories such as to stay indoors.

“Unfortunately, we’re just at the mercy of Mother Nature,” Mr. Kim said.

Source: WSJ

The stunning numbers behind success of Tesla big battery

The Tesla big battery in South Australia has already taken a 55 per cent share in the state’s frequency and ancillary services market, and lowered prices in that market by 90 per cent, new data has shown.

The stunning numbers on the economics of the country’s first utility-scale battery were presented at the Australian Energy Week conference in Melbourne on Thursday by McKinsey and Co partner Godart van Gendt.

Speaking as part of a panel on the leading technologies and strategies that will help manage the transition to renewables in Australia, van Gendt said the data was more evidence that battery storage would “play a very big role.”

He said that a lot of discussion around the success of the big battery – the biggest of its kind in the world, and delivered at break-neck speed – had focused on the fact that “we did it,” and not on the economics.

“So, I thought I’d give you a few numbers from the market data,” van Gendt said.

“In the first four months of operations of the Hornsdale Power Reserve (the official name of the Tesla big battery, owned and operated by Neoen), the frequency ancillary services prices went down by 90 per cent, so that’s 9-0 per cent.

“And the 100MW battery has achieved over 55 per cent of the FCAS revenues in South Australia. So it’s 2 per cent of the capacity in South Australia achieving 55 per cent of the revenues in South Australia.

“So that’s great for the first battery in the market,” he added, “but if you’ve already had 55 per cent of the FCAS that are now gone, right… and a 90 per cent drop in price, then the business case for the second battery, of course, is a bit less attractive.

“So I wish the second battery in South Australia a lot of luck!”

Van Gendt’s calculations are just the latest in a series of assessments that show how the Tesla battery – despite being mocked by detractors for its small size compared to the overall grid – is having an impact on the market.

Various estimates have put the cost savings to consumers from the FCAS market alone at around $35 million, just in the first four months of its operation.

That’s a pretty good bang for the buck for the estimated $50 million investment by the South Australia government. South Australia is the only state that has experienced a decline in FCAS prices over the past few months.

The fact that the Tesla big battery has been able to puncture the FCAS pricing bubbles created by the gas cartel illustrates how even small additions to capacity – and new dispatchable technologies – can change the equations and market dynamics.

Tesla is doing more than that: It is also changing the way the market operators and participants are thinking about the grid and underlying the case for new rules to be developed to ensure that their assets are properly recognized by the market.

Source: Renew Economy
Japan Draft Plan Sets Ambitious Targets for Nuclear Energy

Japan's government proposed an energy plan Wednesday that sets ambitious targets for nuclear energy use in the coming decade despite challenges after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

The draft, presented to a government-commissioned panel, said that by fiscal 2030 nuclear energy should account for 20-22 percent of Japan's total power generation. The industry ministry's draft plan also sets a 22-24 percent target for renewable energy, with the remainder coming from fossil fuels, in line with goals set in 2015. The Cabinet is expected to approve the plan around July.

The targets for nuclear energy appear difficult to achieve given that electric utilities are opting to scrap aging reactors rather than pay higher costs to meet post-Fukushima safety standards. Uncertainty over what to do with massive radioactive waste in the crowded island nation is another big concern. The plan maintains Japan's fuel reprocessing ambitions despite international concerns about the stockpile of plutonium produced by the process.

The plan avoids the unpopular issue of building new nuclear plants to achieve the target. Panel chairman Masahiro Sakane, advisor to Komatsu Ltd., called it the "inconvenient truth" from which the government averted its eyes.

Nuclear energy now accounts for less than 2 percent of Japan's energy mix since most reactors were idled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster. Only five reactors have since restarted.

Japanese utilities have decided to scrap 15 reactors, including six at Fukushima, since the accident, bringing the number of usable reactors down to 39. Experts say 16 more that remain idled are likely to be decommissioned and are not being considered for restarts.

Takeo Kikkawa, a Tokyo University of Science professor and energy expert on the panel, said the nuclear target would be impossible to achieve within 12 years unless all remaining reactors are granted permission to run 20 more years past their standard 40-year operational life. Without the extension or the building of new reactors, Japan will have no workable reactors by 2050, he said.

Less nuclear energy means higher reliance on fossil fuels, contrary to Japan's emissions reduction pledges, he said. Japan has set a goal of cutting its carbon emissions by 26 percent from 2013 levels by 2030 and by 80 percent by 2050.

Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has become an anti-nuclear activist since the Fukushima accident, told the newspaper Tokyo Shimbun recently that nuclear energy could be costly because of safety requirements and the unrealistic fuel reprocessing program, and that Japan should shift from nuclear to renewables.
Source: NY Times

Article

Renewable energy has emerged as an increasingly competitive way to meet new power generation needs. This comprehensive cost report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) highlights the latest trends for each of the main renewable power technologies, based on the latest cost and auction price data from projects around the world.

Study finds:

  • Renewable power generation costs continue to fall and are already very competitive to meet needs for new capacity.
  • Competitive procurement – including auctions – accounts for a small fraction of global renewable energy deployment. Yet these mechanisms are very rapidly driving down costs in new markets.
  • Global competition is helping to spread the best project development practices, reducing technology and project risk and making renewables more cost-competitive than ever before.
  • In developed countries, solar power has become cheaper than new nuclear power.
  • The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from solar photovoltaics (PV) decreased by 69% between 2010 and 2016 – coming well into the cost range of fossil fuels.
  • Onshore wind, whose costs fell 18% in the same period, provides very competitive electricity, with projects routinely commissioned nowadays at USD 0.04/kWh.
  • As installation accelerates, the cost equation for renewables just gets better and better. With every doubling of cumulative installed capacity for onshore wind, investment costs drop by 9% while the resulting electricity becomes 15% cheaper.
  • Solar PV module costs have fallen by about four-fifths, making residential solar PV systems as much as two-thirds cheaper than in 2010.

Please click here to read the full report.